Revision

Important notes

One of the major problems regarding the reliability of current (for the launch year) population estimates for Ukraine is a long period passed from the last census, which took place in December 2001. The reason is the undercount of emigrants in 2002–2019 and incomplete registration of births and deaths in non-government controlled areas (NGCA) of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in 2014–2019. This leads to the phenomenon of "immortal" population in NGCA, which is taken into account by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine in the total population. Estimating the realistic population number is a huge problem as well as its age and sex structure. So, the user must be aware this 2020 Revision uses an overestimated launch-year population.

What’s new?

Unlike previous revisions in this 2020 Revision, there are projections for Ukraine and the Government controlled area (GCA). Projection assumptions have been adjusted to take into account new data that have become available since the publication of the 2014 Revision. The projection horizon extended to 2020–2100.

Data

The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2020 calculated by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. For the AR Crimea [1] and Sevastopol city [2], population data is obtained from Demoscope Weekly.

Method

These population projections are produced by the cohort-component method using expert-based assumptions.

Assumptions

There are 4 assumptions ("Medium", "High", "Low" and "Constant") for each of components and additional "Zero net migration" assumption. Fertility and life expectancy assumptions for Ukraine and GCA differ very slightly as a result of mutual levelling of higher levels in Crimea and lower levels in Donbas. These assumptions combined in 7 scenarios for Ukraine and 7 scenarios for the GCA.

Publication

Related publication with a detailed description of results is available in Ukrainian (Chapter 6).

Next release

The next revision will be released in November 2022 or after processing the nearest population census data.

Revision

In 2014 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. For net migration there is one additional assumption with no migration (closed population). These assumptions are summarized in six scenarios and one "extra" scenario, in which all components are fixed constant at the level of 2013. These scenarios are:

1. Medium–medium–medium
2. High–high–high
3. Low–low–low
4. High–low–high
5. Low–high–low
6. Medium–medium–zero
7. Constant scenario

A brief of assumptions description

Fertility assumptions based mainly on the survey results (link 1, link 2). These surveys found out that Ukrainian women of reproductive ages assume to deliver on average 1.75–1.80 children per woman. Thus, according to the "Medium" assumption total fertility rate gradually reaches this level with some reducing (about 5–7%) up to 1.67–1.69 children per woman. The "High" and "Low" assumptions were set at 1.3 and 2.0 children per woman because women in surveys stated that two children is the "desired" number, while 1.3 children per woman is close to the lowest number recently registered in Ukraine.

Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.16 and 0.10 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.30 and 0.18 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.

Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

Revision

In 2013 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. For net migration there is one additional assumption with no migration (closed population). These assumptions are summarized in six scenarios and one "extra" scenario, in which all components are fixed constant at the level of 2012. These scenarios are:

1. Medium–medium–medium
2. High–high–high
3. Low–low–low
4. High–low–high
5. Low–high–low
6. Medium–medium–zero
7. Constant scenario

The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2013 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.

A brief description of assumptions

Fertility assumptions based mainly on the survey results. These surveys found out that Ukrainian women of reproductive ages assume to deliver on average 1.75–1.80 children per woman. Thus, according to the "Medium" assumption total fertility rate gradually reaches this level with some reducing (about 5–7%) up to 1.67–1.69 children per woman. The "High" and "Low" assumptions were set at 1.3 and 2.0 children per woman because women in surveys stated that two children is the "desired" number, while 1.3 children per woman is close to the lowest number recently registered in Ukraine.

Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.16 and 0.10 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.28 and 0.18 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.

Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

More detailed description is available in Ukrainian

Revision

In 2012 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. For net migration there is one additional assumption with no migration (closed population). These assumptions are summarized in six scenarios and one "extra" scenario, in which all components are fixed constant at the level of 2011. These scenarios are:

1. Medium–medium–medium
2. High–high–high
3. Low–low–low
4. High–low–high
5. Low–high–low
6. Medium–medium–zero
7. Constant scenario

The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2012 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.

A brief description of assumptions

Fertility assumptions based mainly on the survey results. These surveys found out that Ukrainian women of reproductive ages assume to deliver on average 1.75–1.80 children per woman. Thus, according to the "Medium" assumption total fertility rate gradually reaches this level with some reducing (about 5–7%) up to 1.67–1.69 children per woman. The "High" and "Low" assumptions were set at 1.3 and 2.0 children per woman because women in surveys stated that two children is the "desired" number, while 1.3 children per woman is close to the lowest number recently registered in Ukraine.

Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.16 and 0.10 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.28 and 0.17 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.

Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

Revision

In 2011 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. For net migration there is one additional assumption with no migration (closed population). These assumptions are summarized in six scenarios and one "extra" scenario, in which all components are fixed constant at the level of 2010. These scenarios are:

1. Medium–medium–medium
2. High–high–high
3. Low–low–low
4. High–low–high
5. Low–high–low
6. Medium–medium–zero
7. Constant scenario

The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2011 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.

A brief description of assumptions

Fertility assumptions based mainly on the survey results. These surveys found out that Ukrainian women of reproductive ages assume to deliver on average 1.75–1.80 children per woman. Thus, according to the "Medium" assumption total fertility rate gradually reaches this level with some reducing (about 5–7%) up to 1.70 children per woman. The "Low" and "High" assumptions were set at 1.4 and 2.0 children per woman respectively.

Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.17 and 0.10 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.29 and 0.19 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.

Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

Revision

In 2010 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. For net migration there is one additional assumption with no migration (closed population). These assumptions are summarized in six scenarios and one "extra" scenario, in which all components are fixed constant at the level of 2009. These scenarios are:

1. Medium–medium–medium
2. High–high–high
3. Low–low–low
4. High–low–high
5. Low–high–low
6. Medium–medium–zero
7. Constant scenario

The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2010 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.

A brief description of assumptions

Fertility assumptions: while the TFR in Ukraine has fallen to levels close to 1.1 children per woman, no cohort of Ukrainian women (such as those born in 1960 and earlier) thus far has reached a completed fertility rate of less than 1.8 children per woman. Taking into account a huge drop in aspirations for getting children among younger generations it is reasonable to reduce this number to 1.6–1.7 children per woman for "Medium" assumption. The "Low" and "High" assumptions were set at 1.2 and 2.1 children per woman respectively.

Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.19 and 0.12 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.32 and 0.22 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.

Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

Revision

In 2009 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. These assumptions are summarized in three scenarios. These scenarios are:

1. Medium–medium–medium
2. High–high–high
3. Low–low–low

The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2009 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.

A brief description of assumptions

Fertility assumptions: while the TFR in Ukraine has fallen to levels close to 1.1 children per woman, no cohort of Ukrainian women (such as those born in 1960 and earlier) thus far has reached a completed fertility rate of less than 1.8 children per woman. Taking into account a huge drop in aspirations for getting children among younger generations it is reasonable to reduce this number to 1.6 children per woman for "Medium" assumption. The "Low" and "High" assumptions were set at 1.1 and 2.0 children per woman respectively, were 1.1 – among of the lowest levels has reached and 2.0 – the level close to replacement for stable population.

Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.22 and 0.11 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.35 and 0.23 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.

Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

For this Revision is available population projection for regions of Ukraine.

Revision

In 2008 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. These assumptions are summarized in three scenarios. These scenarios are:

1. Medium–medium–medium
2. High–high–high
3. Low–low–low

The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2008 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.

A brief description of assumptions

Fertility assumptions: while the TFR in Ukraine has fallen to levels close to 1.1 children per woman, no cohort of Ukrainian women (such as those born in 1959 and earlier) thus far has reached a completed fertility rate of less than 1.8 children per woman. Taking into account a huge drop in aspirations for getting children among younger generations it is reasonable to reduce this number to 1.6 children per woman for "Medium" assumption. The "Low" and "High" assumptions were set at 1.1 and 1.9 children per woman respectively.

Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.23 and 0.14 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.33 and 0.16 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.

Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

Revision

In 2006 revision used 5 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. These assumptions are summarized in nineteen scenarios. These scenarios are:

1. Medium–medium–medium
2. High–high–high
3. Low–low–low
4. Constant scenario
5. High – High – Medium
6. High – Low – Low
7. High – Medium – High
8. High – Medium – Low
9. High – Medium – Medium
10. Upper medium – High – High
11. Upper medium – Medium – High
12. Low – Medium – Low
13. Low – Medium – Medium
14. Medium – High – High
15. Medium – High – Medium
16. Medium – Low – Low
17. Medium – Medium – High
18. Medium – Medium – Low
19. Medium – Very low – Very low.

The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2006 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.

A brief description of assumptions

Fertility assumptions cover a range from 0.9 to 1.8 children per woman.

Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Extrapolating of the age specific mortality rates can lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. A decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.22 and 0.14 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.33 and 0.17 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels. So called "Very low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the huge raising of mortality caused by HIV-AIDS epidemic

Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

More detailed description is available in English and Ukrainian.