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Population ProjectionsPopulation projections are not predictions. They contain a groups of scenarios based on assumptions regarding the components of population growth, which are themselves subject to uncertainty. Note that none of the scenarios is more plausible than the others. Users are invited to consider several scenarios when they analyse the results of projections. For example, if you need to test some pension calculations you need to compare the young-age structure scenario with the old-age structure scenario.Also, it cannot be claimed that the values observed in the coming years will always remain within the range implied by the "Low" and "High" assumptions. The Institute of Demography and Social Studies (IDSS) will provide new revisions yearly or at least biennially to ensure that latest available data taken into account. Since 2014 the State Statistics Service of Ukraine does not provide population data for all Ukraine. We have started work on population estimations by indirect methods. A revised population projection will be published as soon as it is available. MethodThe population projections for Ukraine are produced by the cohort-component method. Several assumptions are formulated for each component – fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration. Once applied in the form of rates to the base population by single age and sex, these assumptions generate the future births and deaths by cohorts (year of birth). Immigrants and emigrants applied in the form of numbers calculated by cohorts (year of birth) also. The population of the following year is then obtained by the demographic balance equation, with births and immigrants being added to the base population while deaths and emigrants are subtracted by year of birth respectively.Assumptions and scenariosThe assumptions usually are – "Medium", "High" and "Low" for each of components, and then summarized in a few scenarios. For some purposes there are additional assumptions – "constant" (which holds all components with no change on levels of the latest available year) and "zero migration" (with no migration).Base populationThe base populations for projections until 2014 were obtained from the postcensal estimates provided by State Statistics Service of Ukraine of the population as of January 1st. These estimates are by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex; they are based on the 2001 Census and official registered demographic events (births, deaths and migration). Since 2014 State Statistics Service of Ukraine does not provide population data for all Ukraine. Starting in 2015, the base population will be based on suitable estimations for Ukraine, and used for projections for all Ukraine, in order to maintain time series.Level of detail producedEvery population projection scenario is produced by sex and single-year age for every calendar year up to correspondent projection horizon. |
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National Population Projections |
Regional Population Projections |
